Tag:Point Spread
Posted on: October 8, 2009 11:35 am

Week 5 Pick

Ouch, 4-10 last weekend.  That's brings me to 32-29, barely above average.  I thought I had a general plan that could get me above 50% every week, but it just goes to show you that you can never really beat the system.  I'll try my method for one more week and if it doesn't work, I'll just go back to my guy.  That's how bookeepers make their money!  Anyways, here are my picks for this weekend:

Cincinnati (+8.5) over Baltimore.  I like the Bengals here for two reasons.  One, Carson Palmer has kept his team in the game, every game.  Two, Cedric Benson has been great as far as managing the game and keeping time of possession.  Ravens will probably win, but division games are usually closer.

Cleveland (+5.5) over Buffalo.  The Browns lose Edwards, which I think is a good thing.  Anderson is now the definite starter, and should be.  Plus, the Bills are just going nowhere, picking them is a death wish.  I might be prejudiced because I was forced to start Trent Edwards in fantasy football because McNabb and Hasselbeck are hurt.

Washington (+3.5) over Carolina.  Everything in my gut is telling me to take Carolina, but if you look at the stats, Carolina can't score, and Washington has a pretty good defense.  I don't see Delhomme rebounding here, and every week I tell myself that Washington will break out this week.

Detroit (+10.5) over Pittsburgh.  I'm going to keep on picking against a favored Steelers team if they can't close out games.  I could easily see the Steelers winning a 7-point game here, since the Lions offense is actually pretty good.

Kansas City (+8.5) over Dallas.  I'm a sucker for points, so I had to take this one.  The Cowboys are off rhythm and they're playing in Kansas City.  If Cassel gets that passing game going, they could even win this game.

Oakland (+15.5) over New York Giants.  Though they physically dominate teams like Washington and Kansas City, the score rarely reflects it.  They beat the Chiefs and Redskins by less than 15 points, so I'll take the Raiders in a loss by about 13.

Tampa Bay (+13.5) over Philadelphia.  Am I insane?  I've taken the points in every bet thus far.  In this one, McNabb and Westbrook are back from injury, but their rhythm won't quite be back yet.  Eagles win, Bucs try and keep it close.

Minnesota (-10.5) over St. Louis.  This one won't be close, even considering I'm in a point-taking mood.  Great defense versus a terrible offense.  Favre and AP will get a TD or two a piece, while the Rams could easily get shutout AGAIN.

San Francisco (-2.5) over Atlanta.  The 49ers defense has been spectacular recently, and the absence of Frank Gore hasn't really hurt them.  I don't particularly like the Falcons run game either.

Houston (+5.5) over Arizona.  Andre Johnson will have a huge game in this one, considering the Cardinals can't defend the passing game.  With Hightower looking very one-dimensional, the Texans defense might step up.

Denver (+3.5) over New England.  I probably shouldn't pick against Tom Brady, but the Pats are away and the Broncos defense looks great.  Maybe I've been fooled by Denver's soft schedule, but we'll certainly find out after this game is over.

Jacksonville (even) over Seattle.  The Jaguars are hot, while the Seahawks are reeling.  When David Garrard shows up, MJD doesn't even need to play all too well.  Having Hasselbeck back could make all the difference, and we'll see how the Jaguars respond.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee.  I'm shocked by this line.  I know the Titans are truly better than 0-4, but the Colts are one of the best teams in the league.  Peyton is on fire.  I suppose they are playing in Tennessee and it is a division game, which usually makes games closer, but still.  Manning to Wayne?  Come on.

New York Jets (-1.5) over Miami.  Sanchez will bounce back, and Rex Ryan seems like the best bet to stop the wildcat offense.  The Dolphins will undoubtedly run for their lowest amount on Monday Night, and the Jets will remain on top of their division.
Category: NFL
Posted on: October 1, 2009 1:29 pm

Week 4 Picks

12-4 last week!  That brings me to 28-19!  I started a new strategy last week, we'll see if it holds up this week...

Detroit (+9.5) over Chicago.  The Lions have finally found their confidence, and I believe this will be a low-scoring game with the Bears winning.

Cincinnati (-5.5) over Cleveland.  In my opinion, the Browns are the worst team in the NFL.  I don't see them coming close to Palmer and the Bengals.

Oakland (+9.5) over Houston.  Although Russell is terrible, McFadden will get it going this week.  The Texans will probably win, but they won't score a ton of points against Oakland's defense.

Seattle (+8.5) over Indianapolis.  I'm just scooping up points this week.  Peyton won't throw for 4 TDs every week, and I think Seattle stays in this one.  Remember, Freeney isn't playing.

Jacksonville (+2.5) over Tennessee.  I hate to pick against Jeff Fisher, having him go 0-4, but MJD is the man and has the power to lift this team over their division rivals.

New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City.  If the Giants are able to limit the Bucs offense to so little, imagine what will happen against the Chiefs?

Baltimore (+1.5) over New England.  The Ravens are all around a better team so far this year, and their defense matches up well against the Patriots.

Washington (-6.5) over Tampa Bay.  This is the Redskins perfect change to get some offense going.  I don't see Tampa Bay winning more than 2 or 3 games this year, although we'll see if Josh Johnson makes an impact or not.

Buffalo (-1.5) over Miami.  Having Marshawn back may be the spark the Bills need.  Plus, his return may help TO get open more often.

New York Jets (+5.5) over New Orleans.  I think the Saints win by a field goal or less.  The Jets defense will find a way to keep it close, but ultimately lose by a late score.

Denver (+2.5) over Dallas.  Playing in Denver, I see the Cowboys offense being average against the Broncos defense.  Marshall is also slowly becoming more of a force.

San Francisco (-9.5) over St. Louis.  Glen Coffee is a good replacement while Gore is hurt, and the Rams barely score.  Eight points per game?  Come on.

San Diego (+6.5) over Pittsburgh.  I don't think the Steelers lose this game, but this is too many points when considering San Diego's offense.

Green Bay (+3.5) over Minnesota.  If they can limit their mistakes, the Packers will win.  I expect this to be a very close game, so I'd rather take the points.

Category: NFL
Posted on: September 18, 2009 7:53 pm

Week 2 Picks

My Week 1 picks landed me at a decent 8-7, since I made my picks after the Steelers/Titans game.  And here we go for Week 2...

New York Jets (+5.5) over New England.  The Jets dominated their opponent last weekend, while the Patriots got lucky.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over Chicago.  After a shaky debut with the Bears and losing Urlacher, we may see a blowout against the defending champs.

San Diego (-3.5) over Baltimore.  This was the toughest pick, but I don't think Baltimore is as good as most.  Plus, San Diego is home.

New York Giants (+2.5) over Dallas.  Biased pick, but the Giants annually stuff the Cowboys run game.  The final score usually is a close one, so I'll take the points.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over Miami.  Though neither team really clicked last week, the Colts have more weapons to play a better game.

Oakland (+2.5) over Kansas City.  Are you kidding me?  I was shocked the Chiefs were favored.

Green Bay (-8.5) over Cincinnati.  This is a lot of points to give up, but I don't see the Bengals scoring more than 10 points.

Carolina (+6.5) over Atlanta.  This is the last chance I'll give to Delhomme and the Panthers.  I think it will be a close game so, once again, I'll take the points.

Minnesota (-9.5) over Detroit.  The Vikings defense could very well shut the Lions out this week, while AP will continue to dominate.

Arizona (+3.5) over Jacksonville.  I see this game as basically 50/50, so I'll take the small amount of points.

New Orleans (+1.5) over Philadelphia.  The Eagles are significantly worse when McNabb doesn't play, and they'll have to play catchup against Brees.

Tennessee (-6.5) over Houston.  Despite losing last week, the Titans are a vastly better team than the Texans.

Washington (-9.5) over St. Louis.  I think the Redskins will bounce back fairly seamlessly against the Rams.  Spagnuolo will need at least a year to get this team above 4 wins.

Buffalo (-4.5) over Tampa Bay.  With both a strong offense and defense, the Bills could put up a lot of points while keeping the Bucs offense in check.

Seattle (+1.5) over San Francisco.  Hasselbeck has won 8 of the last 10 games he has started in, so the 49ers shouldn't be too much of a problem.

Cleveland (+2.5) over Denver.  I don't see the Broncos getting lucky twice in a row, and Brady Quinn will only get better.

Category: NFL
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