Blog Entry

Week 10 Picks

Posted on: November 12, 2009 12:38 pm
A solid 8-5 last week, which leaves me at 69-59.  I rarely give away the points in most games, but I had to take the Packers over the Bucs last week.  I mean seriously, who wouldn't?  Just goes to show you that Vegas knows more than us.  Anyways, here we go...

Chicago (+3) over San Francisco.  Everyone is counting the Bears out right now, but they should be able to get after Alex Smith.  Cutler got Greg Olsen active last week, and they're angry after their loss to the Cardinals.  With Cutler it's either all or nothing, and I think he'll have a very good game against the 49ers.

Atlanta (-1.5) over Carolina.  I was very surprised about this line, considering Atlanta has a very complete team.  Carolina's running game is something to be scared of, but I don't think their passing game is good enough.  Turner has been turning it on lately, too.

Tampa Bay (+10) over Miami.  I don't like how Chad Henne has been playing lately, and the wildcat offense has been very inconsistent.  Miami will in all liklihood win this game, but Josh Freeman impressed me, and I think he gives the Bucs a shot to win the game.

Detroit (+16.5) over Minnesota.  This should be a blowout, but I'm taking the points for two reasons.  First, this could very well be a trip-up game for the Vikings.  Second, the Lions have to realize that they need to get Calvin Johnson more active in their passing game.  Stafford won't throw 5 picks again.

Jacksonville (+7) over New York Jets.  I thought that this was a lot of points for a Jets team that is very inconsistent.  Yeah, the Jaguars do not deserve their 4-4 record, but seven points?  MJD can break an 80-yard run at any moment.  If the Jets passing game gets going, this could be a blowout, but I'm still taking the points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) over Pittsburgh.  Too many points again!  The Steelers usually win close games, so I'll take the Bengals fully expecting a Jeff Reed winning field goal.  For all we know, the Bengals might actually be better than the Steelers.

New Orleans Saints (-13.5) over St. Louis.  This is one of the highest lines you'll ever see me bite on, but here's my reasoning: even if Steven Jackson runs for 200 yards and three TDs, the Rams defense is bad enough to allow the Saints to cover.

Buffalo (+6.5) over Tennessee.  This is where the Titans short rally ends.  There has been enough film of Vince Young to understand that he's not a very good quarterback, and the Bills defense has been pretty solid this year.  I'm not sure that having Trent Edwards back helps too much, but they can score against this terrible defense.

Denver (-3.5) over Washington.  I think that the they're trying to get us to bite on the fact that Denver has lost two straight, but this is the Redskins we're talking about here.  I'll be shocked if this one is even close.

Kansas City (+1.5) over Oakland.  The Raiders are averaging less than ten points a game, and I think that at some point, Matt Cassel has to turn it on.  Acquiring Chris Chambers will help out that offense a lot, and I'm still looking for Jamaal Charles to show that he can be a starter in the NFL.

Seattle (+8.5) over Arizona.  I love that the Cardinals are getting so much credit here.  It's stupid.  Typical up and down team.  First, they beat a badly slumping Giants team, and then they tank a game against the Panthers.  They crush the Bears, and now everything thinks they're great.  I'm not buying at all.

Green Bay (+3) over Dallas.  The Packers are going to be very angry after that game, and the Cowboys still don't look very good.  Yeah, Miles Austin has emerged as a great receiver, but it can't last for too much longer.  Rodgers must get rid of that ball quicker, especially with Ware and Ratliff chasing him down.

San Diego (+2) over Philadelphia.  This goes against my picking strategy, but I had to take the Chargers here.  I just don't think that the Eagles are very good.  In fact, I don't think any team in the NFC East is very good.  Phillips to Jackson is just too easy.

New England (+3) over Indianapolis.  I hate this one.  It kills me to pick the Patriots in this game, especially because of the reaction that will occur with Pats fans if they do win.  But the Colts secondary is way too banged up.  I hope I'm wrong here.

Baltimore (-11) over Cleveland.  What an anticlimatic finish.  I really don't like anything about the Browns, so I'll go with the struggling Ravens instead.  Enough said.

Category: NFL
Tags: Picks, Spread, Week 10
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